Rate Under 6% in 2026? Only if Unemployment Rises

Expect 30-year rates to hover near 6.4% for most of the year.

The secret? They track the 10-year Treasury yield + a 2.09% bank fee spread.

Waiting for 5% may backfire—inventory’s tight, demand’s sticky, prices reset not crash.

Smart buyers lock 30-year flexibility, overpay principal, then refi if rates slip.

Real relief needs unemployment over 4.5% + 10-year yield under 4%.

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